Bay St. Louis, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS64 KLIX 060848
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
348 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The short term will only see heat and humidity and low chances of
rain around 30% at best, and these will be fleeting. The sfc high
cetered east of FL will get forced a bit farther south as we move
into the weekend. Since this high is ridging through our area, it
will cause our winds to become more SWerly. This does not change a
lot, but normally when we get into SW to W low level flow patterns,
things can heat up quickly. And since the dew pts don`t change, it
can get oppressive. Thankfully we are not in the deepest throws of
summer with this pattern. Northerly flow will cause the heat to go
up as well, but this pattern differs from northerly flow since dew
pts usually don`t lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Relief is coming in the form of sh/ts possibly as early as Sunday
afternoon or evening as a trough axis slowly moves into the gulf
south. There could be some storms with this that become strong or
severe in NW flow. The axis will orient NW to SE into our area for
the first of the week which will allow developing systems to the
west to ride this axis into the area by mid week if it stalls over
us. The question has been where is this boundary going to stall and
trends now give some evidence to this. The main trough axis looks to
stall just north of the area but the good thing is that storms don`t
just develop in a linear fashion adhering to this boundary. Instead,
storms are helped to develop by this boundary then move along and
away from it, and this is what brings some of these storms into our
area at first. The boundary should then slowly progress to near the
gulf coast Tue and stall again Wed before washing out. This farther
movement may be from outflows from storms as they move south and SE.
The trough simply breaks the cap over the area for several days past
Sunday. This allows the strong sfc variables to be released upward
giving us a better chance of sh/ts. The only bad thing is that each
day will bring with it the probability of a few storms
misbehaving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR through this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Southerly winds at 10kt today will slowly shift to SW through the
weekend then back to south by late Tue and SE by Wed. Speeds should
stay around 10kt for a general flow. There is a good chance of sh/ts
each day and night with higher chances expected east of the Miss
River. Some of these could become strong causing winds to shift and
rise abruptly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  73  92  74 /  10   0  20   0
BTR  94  75  94  77 /  10   0  30   0
ASD  92  75  93  76 /  20   0  20   0
MSY  93  78  93  78 /  30   0  30   0
GPT  90  76  91  77 /  10   0  20   0
PQL  90  75  91  75 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE